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Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) – Reports After the Markets Close 2/9/17

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Thursday, 2/9/17.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Nov 03, 2016

42.96
43.67
42.63
43.37
43.37
12,822,700

Nov 02, 2016

42.63
43.09
42.26
42.60
42.60
7,792,900

The current Implied Volatility on the weekly at-the-money strike price is at 175, which is extremely high. The at-the-money March 2017 strike price is at 36, so there is a major difference. The Neutral Calendar Spread is the strategy to use here. Everything looks good about it: weekly options, price to place the trade, wide break-even points, break-even points, and the high IV on the weekly at-the-money strike price. 9.5/10, trade of the week.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -20 ATVI FebWk2 40 Call

Buy 20 ATVI Mar17 40 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$720.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$720.00
Estimated Commission
$50.00

NBBO -0.29 – 0.43. Try to pay 0.37 or less for this trade. at a maximum, pay up to 0.38. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out right before the markets open tomorrow.

Update #1: 9:20 am EST – Pre-market, the stock is up about $4.70/share, but do expect the share price to fall. I am placing the price to close this trade out at $0.60 (net credit). I will update any changes here throughout the day.

Update #2: STC (net credit) now at 0.50.

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) – Reports Earnings Before the Markets Open 12/2/16

Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) is scheduled to report earnings before the markets open on Friday, 12/2/16.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Aug 26, 2016

54.47
54.99
50.12
50.57
4,571,200
50.36

Aug 25, 2016

53.93
55.00
51.49
52.94
3,308,700
52.72

(BIG) has never been too volatile of a stock post earnings, but it is often priced to do so. This trade, a Neutral Calendar Spread, carries minimal risk at the price to place this trade, and has extremely wide break-even points on the profit/loss chart. There are no weekly options, but not is not that much of an issue at all here. This is a very solid trade, should do very well. 9.5/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 BIG Dec16 50 Call

Buy 25 BIG Jan17 50 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,200.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,200.00
Estimated Commission
$62.50

NBBO 0.35 – 0.70. Try to pay 0.53 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.57. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the opening bell.

big-ncs-12116

Update 1: 9:20 am EST – Pre-market, the stock is up about $1.90/share. If it hangs around this range or moves down more, should be a great trade. I am placing the price to close this trade out (net credit) at 1.40 for now. I will update any changes here, as needed.

The Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) Weekly Update & Market Volatility

It has been a very busy week so far using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS), especially on Monday. This strategy does extremely well in volatile markets. Here are the trades placed and closed out so far:


– Monday, 11/14/16. BABA at 9:35 am EST. 0.23 STC order above price paid/contract. December 90.00 calls. Paid 3.93 per contract.
– Monday, 11/14/16. FB at 9:37 am EST. 0.35 STC order above price paid/contract. December 115.00 calls. Paid 5.30 per contract.
– Monday, 11/14/16. AAPL at 9:39 am EST. 0.30 STC order above price paid/contract. December 110.00 calls. Paid 1.74 per contract.
– Monday, 11/14/16. C at 9:53 am. 0.17 STC order above price paid/contract. December 55.00 puts. paid 2.17 per contract.
– Monday, 11/14/16. GOOGL at 10:45 am EST. 1.40 STC order above price paid/contract. December 755.00 calls. Paid 19.70 per contract.
– Tuesday, 11/15/16. BA at 10:00 am EST. 0.34 STC order above price paid/contract. December 150.00 calls. Paid 2.40 per contract.
– Wednesday, 11/16/16. NUGT at 9:43 am EST. 0.20 STC order above price paid contract. December 9.00 calls. Paid 1.90 per contract.
– Wednesday, 11/16/16. TSLA at 10:15 am EST. 1.00 STC order above price paid/contract. December 180.00 calls. Paid 8.50 per contract.

To see my trade log, you can visit the link here: http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480

If you are interested in my subscription service, I provide each trade on Skype and Chatzy in real time, with the ticker symbol, strike price, expiration date, and my sell-to-close price, which is the amount above what is paid for each contract. I also interact with all subscribers throughout each trading day. The subscription also includes access to my Trading Forum, where I post my earnings, weekly, and long-term trades.

I currently have reduced subscription rates and offer a one week money back guarantee if you are not happy with the service.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com.

-Kevin

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Six Flags Entertainment (SIX) – Reports Before the Markets Open 10/26/16

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (SIX) is scheduled to report earnings before the markets open on Wednesday, 10/26/16.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Jul 27, 2016

56.16
58.30
56.00
56.69
3,912,700
56.02

Jul 26, 2016

59.22
60.00
58.85
59.46
1,378,000
58.75

This is one of those trades where the price to place it alone makes it worth trading. Last quarter, (SIX) did not make a significant move at all, and while I am expecting the stock to move more this quarter, the break-even points on the P/L chart using a Neutral Calendar Spread strategy are very wide. The only minor issue regarding this trade is the lack of weekly options. other than that, this is an excellent set-up here. I am still giving this trade a 10/10 if you are able to get the order filled at my recommended price. It will retain value regardless how it moves tomorrow once the markets open.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -50 SIX Nov16 50 Call

Buy 50 SIX Dec16 50 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,000.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,000.00
Estimated Commission
$125.00

NBBO
0.00 – 0.30. Try to pay 0.20 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.22. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the markets open

six-ncs-102516

Update 1: 10/26/16, 9:25 am EST. – Pre-market, the stock is down $1.25/share. I am placing the price to close this trade out (net credit) at $0.50. I will update any changes here.

Update 2: 10/26/16. 10:10 am EST. This trade is in a good spot. Just need time-decay to kick in. Be patient with the trade. STC still at 0.50.

Update 3: STC *(net credit) now at 0.40

Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) – Updates List of Stocks Used – Current as of 9/6/16

Here is the current list of stocks used with the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) as of September 6, 2016:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, BABA, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA

Tier 2: BA, BWLD, TWTR, CMG, IBM, FDX, HD, C, FIT

Tier 3: EXPE, COST, SQ, PYPL, DPZ, CRM, DIS, UPS, ULTA

Tier 4: PNRA, PII, INTU, GPRO, FFIV, PX, V, NUGT, AVGO

I separate each group of stocks used into groups of 9, using a grid view. This makes it easier to navigate different tabs and follow each stock without having to close out any tabs or leave any page.

If you have any questions, you can contact me at kmob79@gmail.com.

Thanks.

Next Weeks Earnings Schedule (4/18/16 – 4/22/16) – Busy Week Ahead

Next week will be on of the busiest all year in terms of the quantity (and quality) of earnings trades. Among the stocks reporting earnings are the following that I will most likely be trading: (Note: those in bold take preference)

LII, NFLX, RCL, DFS, HOG, ILMN, INTC, ISRG, EDU, PM, AXP, CTXS, FFIV, CCK, LVS, PKG, TSCO, YUM, TXT, SLM, URI, AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, SAM, BJRI, GM, MAN, MSFT, PII, SBUX, UA, UAL, V, UNP, CAT, HON, MCD, VZ, LUV, ETFC

I use strategies around earnings that are neutral-based, such as the Neutral calendar Spread, the Reverse Iron Condor, and the Straddle/Strangle. These are debit spread strategies that allow movement in either direction, and really, this is the ONLY way to trade earnings consistently and profit as it is a guessing game as to which direction a stock will move post-earnings, no matter how good or bad the results may be on a company’s quarterly report.

If you have any questions about these strategies or about trading stock options in general, feel free to e-mail me anytime at kmob79@gmail.com.

Thanks.

Earnings Trade of the Week: eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Reports After the Markets Close On 1/27/16

eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 1/27/16

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Oct 22, 2015

26.50
27.66
26.26
27.58
44,605,900
27.58

Oct 21, 2015

24.56
24.70
24.18
24.21
16,881,400
24.21

The Neutral Calendar Spread strategy on this trade is beyond cheap to place. In fact, I haven’t seen such a low cost to place this strategy on any stock in quite some time. It simply has to be placed. Even if it were more expensive, I would still use it, as the break-even points are wide, and the possible ROI is very good. This is a 10/10. A must trade.

Here is how the trade is placed: (Note: I am using 100 contracts personally, you do not have to do the same)

Entered Trade

Sell -100 EBAY JanWk5 26.5 Call

Buy 100 EBAY Feb16 26.5 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,200.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,200.00
Estimated Commission
$300.00

NBBO
0.12 – 0.16. Try to pay 0.14 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.17. Try to get in this trade immediately, the price may not last long.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

EBAY NCS 12716

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:25 am EST. I am placing the close price at 0.40

Very Busy Week for Earnings & Trading Opportunities, January 25 – 29, 2016

This week especially is loaded with earnings, so there should be plenty of trading opportunities. Among the stocks reporting earnings this week that I will to trade are the following:

AAPL, BABA, AMZN, PKG, PII, LMT, BA, DFS, FB, TXN, SWI, JNPR, JNJ, T, BBOX, COF, NVR, ABAX, PYPL, CAT, EA, HOG, LLL, MKC, MSFT, V, CVX, HON, MA, PX, STX,

Almost all of my earnings trades are neutral-based, meaning that I do not choose a specific direction. This allows a trader to profit regardless if the stock moves up or down post-earnings. Strategies that I like to use for earnings are the Neutral Calendar Spread, the Reverse Iron Condor, Strangle/Straddle, and occasionally the Long Put Butterfly Spread.

Next week should be very busy as well for earnings.

I am offering discounted subscription plans until January 31, 2016. If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Great Start Trading The New Year – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) – 1/4/16

Yesterday, we had 4 Daily Option Trading Strategy (DOTS) trades, all positions closed out. Each trade was a call position, showing that even in rough market conditions, the DOTS strategy does extremely well. 2008 and 2009 were some of my best years trading, providing plenty of call trades daily. The sell-to-close (STC) orders above the price paid per contract were increased on each trade more than the average, as the current market volatility will provide this. You can see my trade log for the times the trades were placed and the STC price for each trade.

Determining Sell-To-Close Prices Using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS)

There are numerous factors I consider when choosing sell-to-close (STC) price when using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). Among them are the following:

  • The share price for each security
  • The stocks volatility, daily highs and lows, and current market conditions
  • Width of Bollinger Bands
  • The time of day the trade is placed
  • The current bid/ask price
  • Leverage

The share price is extremely important when choosing a STC price. For example, a stock such as Netflix (NFLX) will have a higher STC than Twitter (TWTR) based on share price. NFLX is currently around $99.00/share, while TWTR is $28.00/share. On average, the minimum STC I would have on NFLX is about $0.40. This means that if I paid $4.00 per contract, my STC would be at $4.40. For TWTR, the average STC would be between $0.20 – $0.30. If the price per contract is at $1.20, the STC would be between $1.40 – $1.50.

A stock like Google (GOOGL), however, would have a much higher STC. Since the current share price is around $630.00/share, the minimum STC would be about 0.70, but usually much higher, $1.00+. This is because of higher price per contract paid, it moves more in dollar increments, and has wider daily price swings.

A stock that has higher volatility also plays a role in choosing a STC that assures the trade will be exited as soon as possible. Some of the stocks on the DOTS list simply move a lot more than the others daily.  This is why I have the 3 Tiers with 27 total stocks. I will always prefer to trade stocks that are higher-priced and have larger daily swings. Tier 1 has that. This not to say that stocks on Tier 2 and Tier 3 are not great for trading, they are, but generally the Tier 1 stocks will take a lot sooner to exit than the Tier and Tier 3 stocks. On the same hand, stocks like TWTR, BABA, FB, BA, and CRM all have inexpensive contracts that allows traders to use that as leverage. For example, if it cost me $10.00 per contract to trade a GOOGL strike price, but only $2.00 to trade FB, then I would multiply the contract size on the FB trade five times that of GOOGL to basically have the same cost basis.

  • GOOGL 10 contracts X $10.00/contract = $10,000.00 cost to place trade. $1.00 STC above price paid/contract = $11,000.00 (minus commission costs).
  • FB 50 contracts X $2.00/contract = $10,000.00 cost to place trade. $0.20 STC above price paid/contract = $11,000.00 (minus commission costs).

The minor downside is that FB will take a bit longer to exit than GOOGL would, but this is not always the case. Just understand that after years of trading my strategy, this is generally true of the lower priced stocks. I actually find TWTR to be more volatile than FB, and those contracts are even lower-priced than FB.

The time the trade is placed is also very important. If it is very early in the day, I will use a higher sell-to-close price than I would if there were only two hours left in the trading day. If early, I can always adjust the STC price and lower it, as there is still plenty of time left. If I place a trade at 2:00 p.m. EST, my STC would be more conservative. This is due to lower volume, possible pinning (happens often late Friday’s). If there is an early GOOGL trade at 9:50 am am EST, I would use a STC starting at $1.50 above price paid per contract. Then, depending on the price movement, would adjust and lower accordingly from there (increases happen, as well).

The Bollinger Bands play a very important role in determining my STC price. This is often gained from experience trading the strategy and repetition. If I see a GOOGL chart, where the bands are extremely wide, and all of the bottom 4 indicators are showing extremely oversold for a call buy, I will not hesitate starting with a much higher STC than I usually would. PCLN has this happen often. The one main issue with a stock like PCLN is the bid/ask prices, which I will get into later. A couple of years ago I had a PCLN call trade that had a $5.00 STC order above price paid per contract that cost $18.00 initially. If I see an APPL chart, and there is a $4.00 + difference from high to low daily when the time to place a trade is available, I would set a STC higher than usual. On TWTR or GPRO, for example, if I see a $2.00 difference from the high to low, this would also be a situation where an increase STC price is appropriate. One thing I look at also is the top Bollinger Band high and the Bottom Bollinger Band low, not necessarily the price action, but the Bands themselves. This is a great indicator of where the stock can move to.

Bid/ask prices are also very important and play an important role in my STC prices. As I mentioned, PCLN could probably be traded at least 3 times per day if only the bid/ask prices were reasonable. Especially the last few months, I am seeing a bid/ask difference on the strike prices that are sometimes $3.00 + apart. This is impossible to trade. Occasionally, I will see PCLN strikes that are about $1.20 apart. I will trade this, but would have initially been a $2.00 + STC price above the price paid per contract, I would automatically know to place the STC at $1.00, maybe slightly more. This is because since these trades are round-trip trades, getting in and out of the trade will cut profits simply due to the wide bid/ask prices. If PCLN should ever have a stock split (hope it’s soon), it would probably take over as the #1 DOTS stock to trade. GMCR, even as a lower-priced DOTS stock, has had this issue with the bid/ask prices being too wide. Currently at $58.50/share, the $56.00 strike price call options are trading at $2.24 – $2.76. This is too wide. If my pre-determined STC price would be at $0.30 above price paid per contract, it would be extremely difficult to exit this trade without needing double the price move of the share price. A more reasonable bid/ask would be $2.25 – $2.35 or $2.20 – $2.40 even.

There are trading opportunities where I will buy a lot more calls or puts than usual. In situations like this, since you are more leveraged, the STC can be lowered. I will do this especially if it is later in the trading day. 100 contracts will require a lot less of a price move to exit the trade than 50 contracts would. If I have 100 contracts on TWTR at $1.20 per contract and my initial STC price was at $0.30, I would have no problem lowering that to $0.20 if I wanted to close the trade out as soon as possible. If a STC on GOOGL was initially set at $1.00, lowering that to $0.70- $0.80 is perfectly fine.

My subscription service on Skype and Chatzy for these DOTS trades does provide all of these real-time STC orders, but I wanted to give everyone a good gauge on how to determine what STC orders are appropriate under each circumstance.

If you have any questions about determining a STC price, you can leave a comment here or e-mail me at kmob79@gmail.com.

Thanks.

 

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