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Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) and Earnings Trades, Refer-A-Friend Subscription Match Plan, San Diego Seminar In June 2016

There have been some very quick in and out trades lately on the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). You can see the Trade Log at http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480.

Also, earnings trades have also been going very well, some of which I post for free weekly here on my website such as Square (SQ), Red Hat (RHT), CarMax (KMX), and others. Each week, there are always plenty of trading opportunities with earnings releases, and when you use a neutral-based approach as I do, it takes the guessing game out of the equation as to which direction a security will move post-earnings.

Each subscription not only includes my daily DOTS trades, but access to the Trading Forum, where all earnings, weekly, and long-term trades are posted. But there is more than that: I answer questions all day while trading, as my style of trading offers the opportunity to directly communicate with subscribers and to answer any questions you may have throughout the day, along with interacting with many trader’s all over the world. Whether on Skype, Chatzy, or by e-mail, I am always available to help assist you in understanding stock options and trading.

I am offering a Refer-A-Friend Subscription Match Plan until next Friday, April 15,2016. On any subscription plan three (3) months or longer, I will match that for a friend or family member, so basically you can get the subscription at half price that way when referring someone.

On June 13 – 17, 2016, I will be having a seminar in San Diego, CA at the San Diego Convention Center that is both teaching and live trading debit spreads for earnings and weekly trades. If you are interested in these great trading strategies, you won’t find a better teacher of them, I can assure you. Here is the link to the seminar and more additional information: http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=1690. Each attendee also receives a free three (3) month subscription to my Trading Forum http://kevinmobrien.com/forum/index.php.

If you have any questions, please feel free to e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com. Thanks again.

-Kevin

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: CarMax Inc. (KMX) – Reports Before The Markets Open 4/7/16

CarMax Inc. (KMX) is scheduled to report earnings before the markets open on Thursday, 4/7/16.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Dec 18, 2015

53.44
53.90
50.57
53.49
20,119,800
53.49

Dec 17, 2015

58.81
59.16
57.11
57.15
4,757,100
57.15

While the stock moved down a decent amount last quarter, it wasn’t too significant. Even if the stock were to repeat the same movement this quarter, the Neutral Calendar Spread strategy will do well. The current Implied Volatility on the April 2016 calls is 76, while the May 2016 calls are at 42, so this is an angle to take advantage of, especially on a non-volatile stock. I am giving this trade a 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 KMX Apr16 52.5 Call

Buy 25 KMX May16 52.5 Call


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,375.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,375.00
Estimated Commission
$75.00


Greeks / NBBO

IV
KMX Apr16
52.5 Call
76.21

KMX May16
42.02


NBBO
0.40 – 0.75. Try to pay 0.55 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.58. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

KMX NCS 4616

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:25 am EST:
Pre-market, the stock is up about $1.70/share. It also had a bit of a run-up late yesterday before the markets closed, but nothing major. I am placing the price to close this trade out at $1.50 for now. I will update any changes here, if needed.

San Diego, CA Seminar : Trading Earnings and Weeklies Using Debit Spreads (June 13 -17, 2016)

I will be holding a seminar in San Diego, CA from June 13th – June 17th, 2016 (Monday – Friday) on how to trade Earnings and Weeklies using Debit Spreads. The strategies being discussed and trading are the Neutral Calendar Spread, the Double Neutral Calendar Spread (a synthetic Strangle), Reverse Iron Condor, and Straddles/Strangles.

The cost of the seminar is $799.00 and includes a three (3) month subscription to my Trading Forum (where all earnings and weekly trades are posted) and to my Skype chatroom.

These strategies are neutral-based in that there is no preference for a specific direction a stock moves post-earnings. I have been trading these for many years and have also taught many other traders how to use these profitable strategies.

The Neutral Calendar Spread in particular is a great strategy that can be placed at a minimal cost and brings a very high return on investment. This strategy takes advantage of high Implied Volatility (over-priced options), a lack of a big price move ( it still has wide break-even points), and time-decay. For whatever reason, this strategy is under-used by many traders. During the seminar, I will be teaching this strategy in-depth and what to look for when spotting potential trades. I will also show when it is best to avoid this strategy for earnings an earnings trade. The Neutral Calendar Spread also hold value very well even if the stock moves more than expected post-earnings. For those who cannot trade full-time, this strategy does not require a lot of time management, as companies report earnings either before the markets open or after they close, so it is very easy to set your price to close the trade out well ahead of the bell.

The Reverse Iron Condor is different than the Neutral Calendar Spread in that it does require a stock/security to to make a pre-determined price move, up or down. Choosing the right strike prices is crucial to the success of this strategy. Strike price increments available on a specific security are also very important when using this strategy. What I like about this strategy is it is a lot less expensive to place than the Straddle or Strangle and requires less movement. The potential gains are capped, however, and known at he time of placement. On the same hand, once the security moves past the required strike price(s) to gain maximum return on investment, it can immediately be closed out. I also like to trade this strategy with securities that have weekly options, such as Citigroup (C) and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), among others.

The Straddle and Strangle are strategies that require a large price move to profit. A Straddle is when you buy both call and put options with at-the-money strike prices. The Strangle is buying both calls and puts with out-of-the-money strike prices. The benefits of these strategies is that there is unlimited profit potential on the call side and a high profit potential on the put side. When accurately predicting a large price move on the Straddle or Strangle, the ROI can be very significant. The drawbacks of using these strategies is that they are generally a lot more expensive to place than the Neutral Calendar Spread or the Reverse Iron Condor. If you place a Straddle, for example, and the stock fails to move much post-earnings, you will be looking at a significant loss. This is why I prefer to buy longer term expiration dates to give the trade plenty of time to make the necessary move to profit in case it initially does not. While you will pay more for this time-value, I look at it as a security blanket. Using weekly options with the Straddle or Strangle is very risky. Another strategy I use is called the Double Neutral Calendar Spread, which is similar to the Strangle, but can be placed at a fraction of the price. It requires buying two (2) Neutral Calendar Spreads, a call side and a put side, both using out-of-the money strike prices. The strategy is very unique, and while there aren’t a lot of opportunities to trade it, when there are this strategy works great.

The seminar will go into great detail on all of these strategies and we will be trading them live. I guarantee you will leave the seminar with full knowledge on how to trade them successfully. After the seminar, you will have full access to the Trading Forum and my Skype chatroom where I answer any questions you may have throughout the day.

The seminar starts at 5:45 am Pacific Time on Monday, June 13th, 2016 and will meet each day throughout the week at the same time each morning until Friday, June 17, 2016. Each day, the seminar will last until 2:00 pm Pacific Time.. I will be catering breakfast Monday through Friday.

Once registered, I will promptly e-mail you a receipt of payment and for admission to the seminar.

The seminar will be held at the San Diego Convention Center:

111 West Harbor Drive, San Diego, CA 92101

http://visitsandiego.com/

If you have any questions, you can contact me anytime at kmob79@gmail.com

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Intuit Inc. (INTU) – Reports After the Markets Close on Thursday, 2/25/16

Intuit Inc. (INTU) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Thursday, 2/25/16.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Nov 20, 2015

106.28
108.00
101.17
103.20
6,622,300
102.88


Nov 19, 2015

96.93
97.68
95.79
97.42
3,985,900
97.12

This stock has a history of initially making a somewhat large price move post-earnings, but then settles down to average a moderate move only. I am going to take advantage of this here, using a Neutral Calendar Spread. The current price to pay for this trade is excellent, especially on a higher-priced stock, if you can get it at my recommend price to pay for it. This trade has the potential to make a great ROI, and carries low risk, as it will retain value either way. 10/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -30 INTU Mar16 100 Call

Buy 30 INTU Apr16 100 Call


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,800.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,800.00
Estimated Commission
$90.00

NBBO
0.30 – 0.90. Try to pay 0.60 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.66.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the opening bell.

INTU NCS 22516

Update 1: 9:25 am EST:
Pre-market, the stock isn’t moving much at all, ideal for the Neutral Calendar Spread strategy. I am placing the price to close this trade out at 1.80. I will update any changes to this here, if needed.

Weekly Citigroup (C) Reverse Iron Condor Trade – Expires Next Friday, 2/26/16

Each week on Thursday morning, I place my Reverse Iron Condor trades. Citigroup (C) for years has been one of my favorite stocks to use this strategy with. A Reverse Iron Condor is a combination of a Bull Call Spread and a Bear Put Spread. There are 4 “legs” to this strategy. Last week’s Citigroup trade closed out a a 100 % profit, as is usually the case. The key to this strategy is to place it each week, as the compounded gains yearly add up to a very nice profit. I do not recommend trading it one week, and then skipping the next. These trades are also very inexpensive to place, so a great source of additional income weekly, and they require little monitoring. Once the stock starts moving in a specific direction, I will post the price to close out the profitable side of the trade.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 100 C FebWk4 38 Put

Sell -100 C FebWk4 37 Put

Buy 100 C FebWk4 41 Call

Sell -100 C FebWk4 42 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$3,600.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$3,600.00
Estimated Commission
$600.00


NBBO
0.23 – 0.49. Try to pay 0.36 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.39. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

Q C RIC 21816

Update 1: 8:25 am EST 2/22/16. (C) is up 0.70 pre-market. I am placing the price to close the call side of this trade (bull call spread) at $0.85. On the put side, leave that open for now. There are times where both sides of the trade can profit weekly, and you do not want to sell one side too early.

Update 2: 3:05 pm EST
: STC on the put side at 0.70. On the call side, place the STC at 0.60, day order only.Will update this trade pre-market tomorrow morning

Update 3:
2/24/16: STC at 1.00 on the put side of this trade. On the call side

A Look Ahead To Next Weeks Earnings – 2/15/16 – 2/19/16

Here are the stocks I will be looking at next week to trade for earnings:

Tuesday: CAKE, DTLK, ESRX, FOSL, PSA, RAX

Wednesday: ADI, BLMN, BRCD, CF, DPS, GDDY, JACK, LZB, NVDA, ASGN, PGR

Thursday:
CRMT, BJRI, SAM, DISH, FLS, FLR, MGM, SODA, WMT, WM

Friday: B, DE, VFC

Free Earnings Trade Of The Week: The Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Reports After The Markets Close On Tuesday, 2/9/16

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, February 9, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Nov 6, 2015

114.60
116.75
114.57
115.67
16,803,400
115.67


Nov 5, 2015

113.26
113.93
111.60
113.00
14,843,700
113.00

Historically, (DIS) does not move a lot post-earnings. I like the Neutral Calendar Spread here, which is a strategy that takes advantage of overpriced options and time-decay. The current Implied Volatility (IV) on the February Week 2 expiration is 86.77, while the Implied Volatility on the February 2016 expiration is 54.02. I am expecting the stock this quarter to move around $2.00 -$2.50/share This fits in well with the Neutral Calendar Spread strategy, as the break-even points are wide and the potential ROI is also high. I am giving this trade a 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 DIS FebWk2 91 Call

Buy 25 DIS Feb16 91 Call


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,000.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,000.00
Estimated Commission
$75.00


Greeks / NBBO

IV

DIS FebWk2 91 Call

86.77

DIS Feb16 91 Call

54.02

NBBO 0.30 – 0.50. Try to pay 0.40 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.43.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow before the opening bell.

DIS NCS 2916

Update 1: 9:25 am EST
: I am placing the closing price at 0.80. I will update any changes to this here, if needed.

Update 2: 1:48 pm EST: This trade is looking very good. STC still at 0.80.

Update 3: 2/1116: Position Closed.

Earnings Trade of the Week: eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Reports After the Markets Close On 1/27/16

eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 1/27/16

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Oct 22, 2015

26.50
27.66
26.26
27.58
44,605,900
27.58

Oct 21, 2015

24.56
24.70
24.18
24.21
16,881,400
24.21

The Neutral Calendar Spread strategy on this trade is beyond cheap to place. In fact, I haven’t seen such a low cost to place this strategy on any stock in quite some time. It simply has to be placed. Even if it were more expensive, I would still use it, as the break-even points are wide, and the possible ROI is very good. This is a 10/10. A must trade.

Here is how the trade is placed: (Note: I am using 100 contracts personally, you do not have to do the same)

Entered Trade

Sell -100 EBAY JanWk5 26.5 Call

Buy 100 EBAY Feb16 26.5 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,200.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,200.00
Estimated Commission
$300.00

NBBO
0.12 – 0.16. Try to pay 0.14 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.17. Try to get in this trade immediately, the price may not last long.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

EBAY NCS 12716

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:25 am EST. I am placing the close price at 0.40

Very Busy Week for Earnings & Trading Opportunities, January 25 – 29, 2016

This week especially is loaded with earnings, so there should be plenty of trading opportunities. Among the stocks reporting earnings this week that I will to trade are the following:

AAPL, BABA, AMZN, PKG, PII, LMT, BA, DFS, FB, TXN, SWI, JNPR, JNJ, T, BBOX, COF, NVR, ABAX, PYPL, CAT, EA, HOG, LLL, MKC, MSFT, V, CVX, HON, MA, PX, STX,

Almost all of my earnings trades are neutral-based, meaning that I do not choose a specific direction. This allows a trader to profit regardless if the stock moves up or down post-earnings. Strategies that I like to use for earnings are the Neutral Calendar Spread, the Reverse Iron Condor, Strangle/Straddle, and occasionally the Long Put Butterfly Spread.

Next week should be very busy as well for earnings.

I am offering discounted subscription plans until January 31, 2016. If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) – Reports After The Markets Close 1/19/16

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Oct 15, 2015

103.77
104.88
99.10
101.09
48,484,300
101.09

Oct 14, 2015

111.50
111.63
108.05
110.23
33,231,500
110.23

NFLX has been a very volatile stock lately, it has been having up days on really down market days, and vice versa. I think this quarter, the stock is going to make a bigger than usual price move. However, I want to give myself some time on this trade so the Implied Volatility drop that happens post-earnings won’t effect the price of the options too much. I will be using a Strangle strategy with out-of-the-money options and March 2016 expiration dates. This provides a lot of time-value, and should the stock make a big move, up or down, this trade will do extremely well. Even if the stock makes only a $10.00 price move, I do not see the price of the options deteriorating much at all as they have almost 2 months until they expire. While this trade is not cheap to place (using 7 contracts only on each leg), there is not much risk overall. 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 130 Call

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 85 Put


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$4,480.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$4,480.00
Estimated Commission
$21.00

NBBO
6.30 – 6.55. Try to pay 6.45 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 6.55. I will post the STC orders tomorrow, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:24 am EST
: After-hours yesterday, the stock made a big move, but is currently only up about $2.00/share, most likely due to the futures being down. I am placing the STC on the call side at $9.00, as the earnings report was very good, so expecting it to move back up. On the put side, place the STC at 7.00 for now. I will be updating this trade frequently here.

Update 2: STC on the puts at 9.00


Update 3: NFLX falling, place the STC on the puts at 11.00 now. Will continue updating as needed.

Update 4: 9:40 am EST. STC at 10.00 on the put side. STC at 7.00 on the call side.

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