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Very Busy Trading Day on Tuesday, 1/16/18

While the markets opened up very high to start out, eventually there was a significant drop later in the afternoon. I did get in a couple of successful early trades, there were so many opportunities later, I actually missed a couple of them as they were happening simultaneously. In situation like this, I look at which stock is more volatile, the width of the Bollinger Bands (from low to high, and vice versa) and the strike price bid/ask differential and strike price volume.

With the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS), which I developed, my ideal sell-to-close price above what was paid per contract, is at least 10 % gain per trade. However, it is common to net at least 15 % + per trade, others 7% if the trade is taking a little bit longer than expected.

All of the trades posted below were exited extremely fast from the time of entry.

Here are the trades placed on Tuesday, January 16, 2018:

857. Tuesday, 1/16/18. BIDU at 9:40 am EST. 0.25 STC order above price paid/contract. January 265.00 puts. Paid 4.75 per contract (there was a wider bid/ask price than usual, so I sold early, original 0.60 STC.
858. Tuesday, 1/16/18. SQ at 9:56 am EST. 0.15 STC order above price paid/contract. January 40.00 calls. Paid 0.68 per contract.
859. Tuesday, 1/16/18. BABA at 10:21 am EST. 0.26 STC order above price paid/contract. January 190.00 calls. Paid 1.84 per contract.
860. Tuesday, 1/16/18. GOOGL at 1:04 pm EST. 1.00 STC order above price paid/contract. January 1130.00 calls. paid 8.20 per contract.
861. Tuesday, 1/16/18. BABA at 2:03 pm EST. 0.18 STC order above price paid/contract. January 185.00 calls. paid 1.40 per contract.
862. Tuesday, 1/16/18. NVDA at 2:18 pm EST. 0.25 STC order above price paid/contract. January 220.0 calls. paid 2.10 per contract.

This week is still somewhat slow in terms of earnings trades, with a lot of bank/financial earnings still due, but next week really picks up. Along with the DOTS strategy, earnings trades are a great source of generating income, and require much less stock/chart monitoring.

All subscription plans include access to my Skype chatroom, where I post my Daily Options Trading Strategy real-time trade alerts. All subscription plans also include full access to my Trading Forum, which is where I post all of my earnings, weekly, and long-term trades.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

-Kevin

Double Neutral Calendar Spread Strategy Placed on Red Hat (RHT) Today, 12/19/17 – After The Markets Closed

Red Hat, Inc. (RHT) has always been a good stock to use the Double Neutral Calendar Spread strategy with. As I posted on my Trading Forum page, where I post all earnings trades I place, (RHT) reported earnings after the markets closed today:

Here is the Profit/Loss Chart for this (RHT) trade:

Currently, as of 5:54 pm EST, the stock is down about $5.20 a share:

One of the main things I stress when trading and teaching about earnings trades is to use a neutral-based approach. For example, Red Hat (RHT) actually had a very good quarter, beating on revenue and earnings. This does not always matter when trading earnings releases. There are many factors that may move a specific stock: future guidance is always one of the most important.

After-hours, on the same hand, is not always an accurate prediction as to how the stock will trade the when the markets open the following morning. However, if the stock should stay in the same range as it is now, this trade looks to be a very nice winner. I paid a net debit of $1.05.

I will post an update tomorrow as to how the trade worked out. This trade does expire this coming Friday, and will all earnings trades, I like to exit as soon as possible, but will also let the time-decay factor work in my favor if I see that a lot more value can be gained by doing so.

This strategy, and all of my earnings-based trades are posted on my Trading Forum webpage.

I am currently offering a great discount on all subscription plans until December 5, 2017.

If you have any questions about this strategy, or any others, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Also, if you are interested in a free PDF copy of my book on Bollinger Bands, e-mail me and I will send you a copy.

Thanks.

Update 1: 12/20/17 at 9:45 am EST: Trade is looking excellent. Will update when the positions are closed out.

Update 2 9:55 am EST: The Call Side position closed at $0.35. Will update when the Put Side position is closed.


Update 3: 10:44 am EST. The Put Side of this trade is currently has a bid/ask price of $0.70 – $1.70, which will narrow out shortly. Trade is in a great position here, right near the put strikes. Time-decay will keep increasing value.


Update 4: 3:35 pm EST. I will be closing the Put Side position tomorrow to let the time-decay factor add even more value. The current Greeks/NBBO on (RHT) trade:

I will also provide a follow-up to this specific trade, why I chose the strikes I did, the expiration dates, and philosophy of the strategy itself. Soon, I will be writing a book on the Double Neutral Calendar Spread strategy that will go into my past trades over the years using it, when to take advantage of it, and why I feel it is one of the best earnings strategies there is. Follow up tomorrow when the position is closed.

Final Update: 12/22/17. The entire position has been closed out a net credit of $2.00.

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) Earnings Trade – The Double Neutral Calendar Spread Placed On 12/6/17 Explained

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) reported earnings after the markets closed on Wednesday. (LULU) is a great candidate to use the Double Neutral Calendar Spread strategy. To read more about this strategy, see this link here: http://kevinmobrien.com/?p=858

At the time of placement on Wednesday, (LULU) was trading at $66.50/share. Understanding past performance movement post-earnings on the stock, (LULU) tends to move in the $4.00 -$6.00 range, up or down after reporting earnings. When using this strategy, I like to go on the higher end of price movement. For example, at $66.50 a share, I was looking at the $72.50 strikes on the call side, and $61.50 on the put side. While there other closer near the money strikes available, using those presented too much risk for me, allowing less price movement in the share price to make a profit I was satisfied with.

Trade and Probability Calculator/P/L Chart

I got this trade filled at a $0.33 debit.

The following morning, (LULU) opened up at $73.35/share. This was a perfect scenario. Immediately at the open, the trade was very profitable. It could have been closed out then. However, an important factor with this strategy is that time-decay is on your side at this point. Depending on what kind of profit a trader is content with, a choice has to be made. I chose to keep the trade until this morning (Friday, 12/8/17). Understanding that the stock wasn’t going to make a drastic price move, time-decay taking place, I closed the position out at a $1.10 net credit on the call side, and also got $0.10 on the put side, which I sold on Thursday morning.

To compare strategies and costs, a Straddle strategy (buying both calls and puts that are at-the money), would have cost about $7.50. Using ten (10) contracts on each leg, this trade would have costs $7,500.00, minus commissions. A Strangle strategy would cost less, but there is also a lot more risk, as the stock has to move much more in order to profit.

Another benefit of the Double Neutral Calendar Spread strategy is how well it holds value. On a Straddle/Strangle, there must be a major price move in order to profit or you will be looking at a major loss. In my opinion, the Straddle is the most risky earnings strategy one can place. While the potential profit is unlimited on the upside (the calls), there is simply too much of a price move needed, often unrealistically.

When using this strategy, you want to see a profit/loss chart that looks like the one I posted above. If you see any points in the chart that look like this, avoid the trade completely:

You will always want to avoid non-volatile stocks that have a history of making minimal price moves post-earnings.

As I mentioned in my first post about this strategy, when used properly with the parameters I emphasize, this strategy is one of the most inexpensive, low risk, and profitable strategies there is when using for an earnings-based trade.

If you have any questions about this strategy, or stock options, please leave a comment or e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

This strategy, and all earnings traded are posted on my Trading Forum website, and each subscription has access to these trades (you receive them instantly via e-mail once posted). I am currently offering a subscription match plan until this Sunday, 12/10/17.

Thanks again.

Updated List of Stocks Used For The Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) – Current as of 11/28/17

Here is the updated list of stocks used in the Daily Options Trading Strategy, current as of 11/28/17:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, BABA, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA

Tier 2: BA, TWTR, SHOP, SQ, CMG, CRM, ULTA, FFIV, AKAM

Tier 3: RHT, PYPL, FDX, NUGT, EXPE, FSLR, CAT, C, IBM

I also have discounted subscription rates until this Friday, 12/1/17.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me anytime at kmob79@gmail.com

Updated Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) List of Stocks Used – Current as of 10/13/17

Here is the updated list of stocks used in the Daily Options Trading Strategy, current as of 10/13/17:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, BABA, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA

Tier 2: BA, TWTR, C, SQ, CMG, CRM, ULTA, FFIV, AKAM

Tier 3: RHT, PYPL, FDX, NUGT, EXPE, FSLR, LMT, ISRG, IBM

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

Earnings Season Promo: Subscription Match Offer – From Thursday, 10/12/17 to Sunday, 10/15/17

From Thursday, October 12, 2017 through Sunday, October 15, 2017, I am offering all new subscribers a match on all subscriptions. This offer lasts until Sunday (10/15/17), ahead of earnings season, which starts in full next week. The match plan is as follows:

1 Month subscription = 2 Months
3 Month subscription = 6 Months
6 Month subscription = 1 Year
1 Year subscription = Lifetime

Once signed up, I will automatically credit your account with the match to whichever plan you choose.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

Very Busy Trading Day on Tuesday, 9/5/17

Today was a very busy trading day, 7 out of 7 winners. Even when the markets are down, the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) holds up extremely well. I actually prefer that the markets open down with the strategy, as it provides more call option buying opportunities. On average, each DOTS trade nets from 5% – 10% per trade, with an average of 7.5%. However, 15% winners are not uncommon depending on the charts, especially the Bollinger Band width and time of day.

Here are the trades for Tuesday, 9/5/17.

830. Tuesday, 9/5/17. NVDA at 9:39 am EST. 0.60 STC order above price paid/contract. September 165.00 calls. Paid 5.01 per contract.
831. Tuesday, 9/5/17. AMZN at 9:44 am EST. 1.10 STC order above price paid/contract. September 970.00 calls. Paid 12.60 per contract.
832. Tuesday, 9/5/17. BA at 10:57 am EST. 0.50 STC order above price paid/contract. September 235.00 calls. Paid 4.00 per contract.
833. Tuesday, 9/5/17. AAPL at 11:20 am EST. 0.40 STC order above price paid/contract. September 160.00 calls. Paid 4.35 per contract.
834. Tuesday, 9/5/17. NVDA at 12:13 pm EST. 0.35 STC order above price paid/contract. September 165.00 calls. Paid 3.80 per contract.
835. Tuesday, 9/5/17. AAPL at 12:16 pm EST. 0.09 STC order above price paid/contract. September 160.00 calls. Paid 4.00 per contract.
836. Tuesday, 9/5/17. AMZN at 12.19 pm EST. 1.00 STC order above price paid/contract. September 960.00 calls. Paid 14.30 per contract

You can also see my trade log at at the top of the homepage.

I am offering an end of summer subscription discount on all plans. You can see more about that on my post earlier today.

Also note that I do offer a free copy of my book on Bollinger Bands specifically, a nice complement to my main book on the Daily Options Trading Strategy. Just e-mail me to request the book, and I will send you a PDF file of it.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

Updated List of Stocks Used – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) – 4/21/17

Here is the current list of stocks used for the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS), current as of 4/21/17:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, BABA, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA

Tier 2: BA, MA, TWTR, CMG, NUGT, NVDA, ULTA, C, MU

Tier 3: CAT, GPRO, RHT, LULU, SWKS, EXPE, CRM, SQ, AKAM

Tier 4: ADBE, WYNN, X, ATVI, MOMO, PX, FDX, STZ, PYPL

Key additions: MA, MU, SWKS, ADBE, X, MOMO, PYPL

I am offering a discount on all subscription plans until this Sunday, 4/23/17, and will match any subscription plan that is three (3) months or longer.

If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

-K

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) – Reports After the Markets Close 2/9/17

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Thursday, 2/9/17.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Nov 03, 2016

42.96
43.67
42.63
43.37
43.37
12,822,700

Nov 02, 2016

42.63
43.09
42.26
42.60
42.60
7,792,900

The current Implied Volatility on the weekly at-the-money strike price is at 175, which is extremely high. The at-the-money March 2017 strike price is at 36, so there is a major difference. The Neutral Calendar Spread is the strategy to use here. Everything looks good about it: weekly options, price to place the trade, wide break-even points, break-even points, and the high IV on the weekly at-the-money strike price. 9.5/10, trade of the week.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -20 ATVI FebWk2 40 Call

Buy 20 ATVI Mar17 40 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$720.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$720.00
Estimated Commission
$50.00

NBBO -0.29 – 0.43. Try to pay 0.37 or less for this trade. at a maximum, pay up to 0.38. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out right before the markets open tomorrow.

Update #1: 9:20 am EST – Pre-market, the stock is up about $4.70/share, but do expect the share price to fall. I am placing the price to close this trade out at $0.60 (net credit). I will update any changes here throughout the day.

Update #2: STC (net credit) now at 0.50.

Very Volatile Trading Day on Monday, 1/30/17 – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS)

For about a week ahead of the Presidential Inauguration trading was much slower than usual, as was last week. I am always extra careful trading around any event, but especially this one. There was a surprising lack of volatility, and you can’t trade what isn’t there, so it required some patience to spot trades that did come up.

I do expect very volatile markets going forward, however, and there are many reasons for this. This is great for the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS), which is a strategy that takes advantage of highly oversold and overbought securities with the anticipation of exiting the trade a soon as possible.

Today, on Monday 1/30/17, the markets opened down (still are), and there were trading opportunities right after the markets opened, all calls. This had to be taken advantage of using my strategy. You can see these trades and all others on the top of my homepage (Daily Trade Log) that had some really great returns in an extremely short amount of time. Here is the link: http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480

If you have any questions about the strategy or stock options in general, you can e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks.

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