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Free Earnings Trade Of The Week: The Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Reports After The Markets Close On Tuesday, 2/9/16

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, February 9, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Nov 6, 2015

114.60
116.75
114.57
115.67
16,803,400
115.67


Nov 5, 2015

113.26
113.93
111.60
113.00
14,843,700
113.00

Historically, (DIS) does not move a lot post-earnings. I like the Neutral Calendar Spread here, which is a strategy that takes advantage of overpriced options and time-decay. The current Implied Volatility (IV) on the February Week 2 expiration is 86.77, while the Implied Volatility on the February 2016 expiration is 54.02. I am expecting the stock this quarter to move around $2.00 -$2.50/share This fits in well with the Neutral Calendar Spread strategy, as the break-even points are wide and the potential ROI is also high. I am giving this trade a 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 DIS FebWk2 91 Call

Buy 25 DIS Feb16 91 Call


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,000.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,000.00
Estimated Commission
$75.00


Greeks / NBBO

IV

DIS FebWk2 91 Call

86.77

DIS Feb16 91 Call

54.02

NBBO 0.30 – 0.50. Try to pay 0.40 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.43.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow before the opening bell.

DIS NCS 2916

Update 1: 9:25 am EST
: I am placing the closing price at 0.80. I will update any changes to this here, if needed.

Update 2: 1:48 pm EST: This trade is looking very good. STC still at 0.80.

Update 3: 2/1116: Position Closed.

Very Active Trading Day on Wednesday, 2/3/16

There have been a lot of very good trades today, all call positions. You can see the these on the Daily Trade Log at http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480.

The Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) does remarkably well in rough market conditions, especially down markets, as there tends to be more trading opportunities than usual, especially call option trades.

One earnings trade today on (GPRO), reports after the bell.

Very Busy Week for Earnings & Trading Opportunities, January 25 – 29, 2016

This week especially is loaded with earnings, so there should be plenty of trading opportunities. Among the stocks reporting earnings this week that I will to trade are the following:

AAPL, BABA, AMZN, PKG, PII, LMT, BA, DFS, FB, TXN, SWI, JNPR, JNJ, T, BBOX, COF, NVR, ABAX, PYPL, CAT, EA, HOG, LLL, MKC, MSFT, V, CVX, HON, MA, PX, STX,

Almost all of my earnings trades are neutral-based, meaning that I do not choose a specific direction. This allows a trader to profit regardless if the stock moves up or down post-earnings. Strategies that I like to use for earnings are the Neutral Calendar Spread, the Reverse Iron Condor, Strangle/Straddle, and occasionally the Long Put Butterfly Spread.

Next week should be very busy as well for earnings.

I am offering discounted subscription plans until January 31, 2016. If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) – Reports After The Markets Close 1/19/16

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Oct 15, 2015

103.77
104.88
99.10
101.09
48,484,300
101.09

Oct 14, 2015

111.50
111.63
108.05
110.23
33,231,500
110.23

NFLX has been a very volatile stock lately, it has been having up days on really down market days, and vice versa. I think this quarter, the stock is going to make a bigger than usual price move. However, I want to give myself some time on this trade so the Implied Volatility drop that happens post-earnings won’t effect the price of the options too much. I will be using a Strangle strategy with out-of-the-money options and March 2016 expiration dates. This provides a lot of time-value, and should the stock make a big move, up or down, this trade will do extremely well. Even if the stock makes only a $10.00 price move, I do not see the price of the options deteriorating much at all as they have almost 2 months until they expire. While this trade is not cheap to place (using 7 contracts only on each leg), there is not much risk overall. 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 130 Call

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 85 Put


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$4,480.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$4,480.00
Estimated Commission
$21.00

NBBO
6.30 – 6.55. Try to pay 6.45 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 6.55. I will post the STC orders tomorrow, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:24 am EST
: After-hours yesterday, the stock made a big move, but is currently only up about $2.00/share, most likely due to the futures being down. I am placing the STC on the call side at $9.00, as the earnings report was very good, so expecting it to move back up. On the put side, place the STC at 7.00 for now. I will be updating this trade frequently here.

Update 2: STC on the puts at 9.00


Update 3: NFLX falling, place the STC on the puts at 11.00 now. Will continue updating as needed.

Update 4: 9:40 am EST. STC at 10.00 on the put side. STC at 7.00 on the call side.

Earnings Trade Possibilities for the Week of 1/19/16 – 1/22/16

Tuesday: AMD, CREE, IBM, NFLX

Wednesday
: FFIV, GS, KMI, PCP, SLM

Thursday
: AXP, ETFC, ISRG, SBUX, LUV, UAL, VZ

Friday
: GE

Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) Updated List – 1/19/16

Here is the current (4) tier list of the Daily Options Trading Strategy, current as of 1/19/16:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, FB, BIDU, GOOGL, LNKD, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA

Tier 2: BA, BABA, GPRO, IBM, CRM, TWTR, CHK, BBY, AKAM

Tier 3: C, MNST, PYPL, GDDY, EBAY, CMG, FIT, EXPE, STZ

Tier 4: , DIS, BWLD, CAT, FDX, HD, SHAK, COST, SNDK, ULTA

Great Start Trading The New Year – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) – 1/4/16

Yesterday, we had 4 Daily Option Trading Strategy (DOTS) trades, all positions closed out. Each trade was a call position, showing that even in rough market conditions, the DOTS strategy does extremely well. 2008 and 2009 were some of my best years trading, providing plenty of call trades daily. The sell-to-close (STC) orders above the price paid per contract were increased on each trade more than the average, as the current market volatility will provide this. You can see my trade log for the times the trades were placed and the STC price for each trade.

2016 Market & Volatility Expectations – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS)

I am expecting the markets to have a down year overall, with a lot of volatility daily. When using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS), I actually prefer this, as it tends to bring a lot more daily trades. I especially prefer when the markets open down, as there will always be more call buying opportunities, and the DOTS strategy does have more call trades than put trades on a percentage basis. This type of market volatility also brings increased sell-to-close (STC) orders. The DOTS strategy is unique in the sense that its performance is not based on how the markets overall are trading. It spots daily lows and highs extremely well. The key to the strategy is patience and not having a trigger-finger. However, when the 4 bottom indicator numbers and Bollinger Bands are all aligned for a trade, it must be made.

A few stocks on the DOTS list I like to move up this year are: FitBit (FIT), Twitter (TWTR, see a buyout possibility), and Alibaba (BABA).

For those unfamiliar with my subscription service, my daily Skype/Chatzy part of the subscription provides, in real-time, the DOTS trades I make. Before each trade, I provide the ticker symbol I am watching for a possible trade. This is when the Bollinger Bands start to expand and the indicator numbers are getting closer to a buy point. Once a trade is near, I once again provide the ticker symbol, the strike price, expiration date, my sell-to-close order (above the price paid per contract). Once an order is filled, the group chat and I provide what they paid per contract.

I also take questions all day from my subscribers via the mainchat or through personal Instant Messaging on Skype. It is very community-based.

The subscription also includes access to my Trading Forum, where I post my earnings trades, weekly trades, and long-term trades. These are great sources for added income.

All subscription plans come with a one week, money back guarantee if you are not happy with the service, no questions asked. If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com.

Thanks, and Happy New Year.

-Kevin

Great Start to the Week, Notes, Info – 12/28/15

We have had two very good Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) trades today. (NFLX) at 10:13 am EST, $0.35 sell to close order above price paid (paid $4.70, sold at $5.05), and (GOOGL) at 11:01 am EST, $1.00 sell to close order above price paid (groupchat paid an average of $14.70, sold at $15.70. GOOGL took off right after being placed.

Many of the DOTS trades trades actually go for a much higher sell to close price daily if held longer, but I am more interested in making a very nice profit fast, and move on to the next trade. In and out. For example, the GOOGL trade today netted a 6.8 % ROI, but could have been sold much higher if held even 20 minutes longer. But the goal of the strategy is to exit as fast as possible and to not be greedy.

Stocks like (TWTR) tend to average at least a 10% per DOTS trade. This is because on average, a TWTR call or put option is less than $2.00 per contract, and I use minimum $0.20 order above the price paid per contract. However, the higher priced stocks, like (NFLX),(GOOGL), (TSLA), (AMZN), (BIDU), etc, have higher sell to close orders, and tend to close out a lot faster than lower-priced stocks, but not always.

The STC prices I use are based on numerous factors:

– The stocks share price
– The volatility of the stock itself
– Option liquidity (daily)
– Time of day the trade is placed (i.e. I will use a higher STC earlier in the day and a lower STC after 1:00 pm EST)

You can see my daily trade log at: http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480

My subscription-based service provides all of these trades in real-time, with the ticker symbol, strike price, my sell-to close orders used (before the trade is even placed), and when the trade is closed out.

If you have any questions about the strategy, subscription plan, or about stock options, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com or info@kevinmobrien.com

Updated Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) List – Current as of 12/28/15

Here is the new updated Daily Options Trading Strategy list as of 12/28/15:

Tier 1: AAPL, AMZN, FB, BIDU, GOOGL, LNKD, NFLX, PCLN, TSLA

Tier 2
: BA, BABA, GPRO, IBM, CRM, TWTR, CHK, BBY, AKAM

Tier 3
: C, CIEN, PYPL, UPS, EBAY, CMG, FIT, EXPE, ADBE

Tier 4
: DIS, BWLD, CAT, FDX, HD, ATVI, COST, MNST, ULTA

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