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Earnings Trade of the Week: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – Reports After the Markets Close On Wednesday, 2/22/17

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, 2/22/17.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Oct 27, 2016

211.34
213.70
201.65
204.01
204.01
13,093,700

Oct 26, 2016

201.00
203.19
200.10
202.24
202.24
5,632,800

Last quarter, (TSLA) had one of the least moving quarters after reporting earnings in some time. I think this is why this trade strategy here, a Reverse Iron Condor, sets up really well. If (TSLA) reported earlier this week, I would have been more comfortable using the weekly options that expire this Friday. But since tomorrow will already be Thursday, we want to be a little more conservative when choosing to use a weekly with just two days left. Instead, I will use next week’s expiration, which expires next Friday. I like this trade a lot, as I think (TSLA) will make a much larger price move than last quarter, and the break-even points are much smaller than I anticipated. (TSLA) is a very volatile stock in the first place, so this trade should have no problem gaining maximum value. 9.5/10. I am going a bit heavier on this specific earnings trade than usual.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 20 TSLA MarWk1 255 Put

Sell -20 TSLA MarWk1 250 Put

Buy 20 TSLA MarWk1 290 Call

Sell -20 TSLA MarWk1 295 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$4,200.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$4,200.00
Estimated Commission
$100.00

NBBO
1.80 2.39. Try to pay 2.10 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 2.15. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

Update 1: 9:22 am EST: Pre-market, (TSLA) is down about $6.00/share. Once volume kicks in, it could go any direction. Since there is over a week of time value left, I am initially going to place the price to close out (net credit) on both the call and put sides of this trade at $4.00 for now. I will be continuously updating this trade throughout the day.

Update 2: 9:44 am EST: On the put side of this trade, place the price to close the position out (net credit) at $4.20. Leave the call side open for now, there is plenty of time left on it, and the Reverse Iron Condor strategy, with two “sides”, the bull call spread and the bear put spread, can do very well by holding one side.

Update 3 12:45 pm EST: No Changes to positions. Will update as needed.

Update 4: 3:40 pm EST. I will update this trade right before the markets open tomorrow morning. In a good spot, should do well on it.

Update 5: 9:15 am EST. 2/24/17: TSLA is down another $4.00 pre-market, so after yesterday’s drop this trade should start really gaining in value. One of the reasons I chose next week’s expiration instead of the February Week 4 (this week) is exactly for how this trade is working out. If I chose this weeks, it is a borderline loss/break-even unless the stock really drops a lot more today. It would have been much more risky move to do. I have the price to close the put side of this trade out at 4.30. The call side obviously has little value, as this is how the strategy is designed, so leave it open. It would cost more to close the position than the value. I will update any changes, as needed, here.

Update 6: 9:40 am EST, 2/27/17: TSLA down big again. 4.30 STC (net credit) on the put side of this trade.

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) – Reports After the Markets Close 2/9/17

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Thursday, 2/9/17.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Nov 03, 2016

42.96
43.67
42.63
43.37
43.37
12,822,700

Nov 02, 2016

42.63
43.09
42.26
42.60
42.60
7,792,900

The current Implied Volatility on the weekly at-the-money strike price is at 175, which is extremely high. The at-the-money March 2017 strike price is at 36, so there is a major difference. The Neutral Calendar Spread is the strategy to use here. Everything looks good about it: weekly options, price to place the trade, wide break-even points, break-even points, and the high IV on the weekly at-the-money strike price. 9.5/10, trade of the week.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -20 ATVI FebWk2 40 Call

Buy 20 ATVI Mar17 40 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$720.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$720.00
Estimated Commission
$50.00

NBBO -0.29 – 0.43. Try to pay 0.37 or less for this trade. at a maximum, pay up to 0.38. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out right before the markets open tomorrow.

Update #1: 9:20 am EST – Pre-market, the stock is up about $4.70/share, but do expect the share price to fall. I am placing the price to close this trade out at $0.60 (net credit). I will update any changes here throughout the day.

Update #2: STC (net credit) now at 0.50.

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