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A Look Ahead To Next Weeks Earnings – 2/15/16 – 2/19/16

Here are the stocks I will be looking at next week to trade for earnings:

Tuesday: CAKE, DTLK, ESRX, FOSL, PSA, RAX

Wednesday: ADI, BLMN, BRCD, CF, DPS, GDDY, JACK, LZB, NVDA, ASGN, PGR

Thursday:
CRMT, BJRI, SAM, DISH, FLS, FLR, MGM, SODA, WMT, WM

Friday: B, DE, VFC

Webinar Available of the Trading Seminar From San Diego, CA – April 10-12, 2016

I have had many requests asking me if I can have the seminar in San Diego, from April 10-12, 2016, available via a webinar. I have decided that this would be a good idea, especially for those who are unable to attend in-person.

The webinar will be available at www.gotomeeting.com/webinar. I will send you an invitation via-email to the webinar to access the event once registered.

SD Webinar

The webinar will offer those who sign-up to see how I check market related news pre-market, how I set up the charts in multiple views, including the main chart and grid views, what I am looking for in those charts to trade (and what to always avoid), along with making some great trades using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS).

On Sunday, April 10, 2016, the event begins at 5:00 pm PST (8:00 pm EST). This is to go over the format for Monday and Tuesday’s trading, making sure everyone has their charts set-up correctly, and me answering questions from trader’s at the seminar.

On Monday and Tuesday, the seminar will start at 5:30 am PST (8:00 am EST). Here, I will go over all pre-market news, checking each stock in the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) to make sure there isn’t any news associated with them that should be avoided. This can be upgrades/downgrades, price target increases/decreases, etc. After this is completed, I will be answering questions until the markets open, and paying attention to all of the stocks used in the strategy. Once the markets open, game is on. This will be very detailed and interactive. You will see in real-time everything that I am watching. Once a chart starts to materialize for a possible trade, I will provide well in advance the ticker symbol, expiration date, strike price, and my sell-to-close (STC) order that I will be placing above the price paid per contract. Once of the benefits of my subscription service is that everything I post is in real-time. There are no delays. Along with that, I also provide well in advance of each trade the details above. There is no need to rush anything. You will see how I expedite each trade ticket as to not waste time. On Monday and Tuesday, the seminar will run until a couple of hours after the markets close, with me answering questions.

Along with the webinar, I am also giving a free three (3) month subscription to my Skype/Chatzy chatroom service and access to my Trading Forum starting immediately upon registering for the webinar. The price for the Webinar and the free 3-Month Subscription is $599.00. Attendees at the San Diego seminar receive a free one lifetime premium year subscription.

If you have any questions, please e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com

Thanks,

-Kevin

Think Or Swim (TOS) Users – Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) Alert Indicator Including Bollinger Bands

For traders that use Think or Swim (TOS), a subscriber of mine has created an alert indicator that shows when all bottom 4 indicators (RSI, IMI, MFI, FSO) using the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). Below, I will copy and paste the formula and screenshots on how to do this. Note: while this is a great tool to use, especially for those who have limited time to watch the charts daily, it does not make up for one’s own due diligence before making a trade, which includes checking the news on a given security before each trade, the upside/downside (highs and lows) daily, and other factors.

Basically, what you want to do is add custom columns in your watchlist. I have the columns light up if the values of the studies are overbought or oversold. You can edit the code to display red for calls and green for puts. Here’s a screenshot of how it looks like:

21116 TOS 1

BB = Bolinger Bands
MFI = Money Flow Index
SF = Stochastic Full
IMI = Intraday Momentum Index
RSI = Relative Strength Index

When they all turn green I check the chart and then make the trade.
NOTE: There is a small issue with the Stochastic Full Indicator, as of right now it only gives one of the values – I hope to fix this soon.

This is how you set it up:

Click on the gear icon on your watchlist and select Customize. Find a custom column and double click it to enter code:

21116 TOS 2

Delete everything in there, change the Aggregation to 1 day, 2 min…and give the Column name a Name:

21116 TOS 3

For this example we will be using BB:

Enter the following code, and hit OK:

def sDev = StDev(close, 12);
def MidLine = Average(close, 12);
def UpperBand = MidLine + 2 * sDev;
def LowerBand = MidLine – 2 * sDev;
plot OOB = if close > UpperBand then Round(close – UpperBand, 2) else if close < LowerBand then Round(close - LowerBand, 2) else Double.NaN; AssignBackgroundColor(if !IsNaN(OOB) then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); OOB.AssignValueColor(if !IsNaN(OOB) then Color.BLACK else Color.BLACK); 21116 TOS 4

21116 TOS 5

You can now add this to your watchlist. Repeat the same process for the other indicators. Here’s the code:

IMI

def IntradayMomentumIndex = reference IntradayMomentumIndex(length = 12);
plot IMI = IntradayMomentumIndex;

AssignBackgroundColor(if IMI > 70 or IMI < 30 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); IMI.AssignValueColor(if IMI < 30 then Color.BLACK else Color.BLACK); MFI def MoneyFlowIndex = reference MoneyFlowIndex(length = 12, "moving avg length" = 1).MoneyFlowIndex; plot MFI = MoneyFlowIndex; AssignBackgroundColor(if MFI > 80 or MFI < 20 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); MFI.AssignValueColor(if MFI < 20 then Color.BLACK else Color.black); RSI def RSI = reference RSI(length = 12).RSI; plot RSIvalue = RSI; AssignBackgroundColor(if RSIvalue > 70 or RSIvalue < 30 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); RSIvalue.AssignValueColor(if RSIvalue < 30 then Color.BLACK else Color.BLACK); SF def StochasticFull = reference StochasticFull("d period" = 6, "slowing period" = 6); plot SF = StochasticFull; AssignBackgroundColor(if SF > 80 or SF < 20 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); SF.AssignValueColor(if SF < 20 then Color.BLACK else Color.BLACK); These will all update now in real time! Here’s the code as it got a bit condensed in the post:


Bollinger Bands

def sDev = StDev(close, 12);
def MidLine = Average(close, 12);
def UpperBand = MidLine + 2 * sDev;
def LowerBand = MidLine – 2 * sDev;
plot OOB = if close > UpperBand then Round(close – UpperBand, 2) else if close 70 or IMI < 30 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); IMI.AssignValueColor(if IMI 80 or MFI < 20 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); MFI.AssignValueColor(if MFI 70 or RSIvalue < 30 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); RSIvalue.AssignValueColor(if RSIvalue 80 or SF < 20 then Color.GREEN else Color.BLACK); SF.AssignValueColor(if SF < 20 then Color.BLACK else Color.BLACK);

Re-Post: San Diego, CA Trading & Education Seminar – April 10 -12, 2016

In April, I will be holding a 3-Day (Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon) education and trading seminar in San Diego, California from April 10th through April 12th, 2016. I have been asked many times over the years to hold seminars along with the full weekly meetings I do. I am limiting the number of attendees for this seminar to (100). I am currently booking reservations now so I have a good idea of what I need in terms of space, equipment, staff, and catering. The seminar will be held at one of the following venues: http://parkaviara.hyatt.com/en/hotel/meetings-and-events/meetings.html or the San Diego Convention Center, depending on availability. I will be catering dinner on Sunday evening, and breakfast and lunch on Monday and Tuesday. The Park Aviara Resort in Carlsbad can discount the room rate if you wanted to stay there during the duration of the seminar. It is a very nice resort.

Each attendee also receives a free one year subscription to my real-time trading alert service on Skype and Chatzy, along with access to the Trading Forum, where I post earnings, weekly, and long-term trades.

The cost per person is $1,999.99. This is a great deal, especially considering the lifetime subscription is also included. It also provides a great opportunity to learn and trade with me in a live setting and to also meet other traders. All attendees receive exclusive premier access to my Skype and Chatzy chatrooom. after attending the seminar.

Upon registering for the seminar, I will e-mail you promptly with a notification of payment and a receipt with a verification code.

Below is an overview of what the seminar includes:

Sunday:
Meet and Greet at 5:00 P.M. PST: Catered Dinner. Discuss the format for Monday and Tuesday’s trading, goals for the week.

Monday and Tuesday:
Meet at 5:30 AM PST in the Meeting Room. Catered breakfast at 6:00 A.M. PST. Go over pre-market news, including futures data, upgrades/downgrades on stocks we trade daily, and general market information. Setting up grid charts to view multiple stocks all at once. 9:30 A.M. PST trading begins. From here, we will see the Bollinger Bands form on each chart, and what I am looking for in terms of volatility and good trade set-ups, and also charts I always avoid. This also includes looking at the upside/downside on a given security based on the charts. 1:00 P.M PST: Catered Lunch. Delve into trading earnings releases and weekly trades using debit spreads and how to use them to profit. I am always open to any questions you may have throughout the entire seminar, and after the markets close.

If you need any assistance with chart set-ups, grid views, scanning the charts, and quick execution of trades, this will also be provided throughout the seminar. I will also have many assistants that trade on various platforms to help assist you, even during actual trades.
I will honor full refunds up to two weeks ahead of the meeting in the event you cannot attend the seminar.

If you have any questions about the seminar, you can e-mail me anytime at: kmob79@gmail.com. I will be glad to answer any questions that you may have. Thanks again.

-Kevin

Free Earnings Trade Of The Week: The Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Reports After The Markets Close On Tuesday, 2/9/16

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, February 9, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Nov 6, 2015

114.60
116.75
114.57
115.67
16,803,400
115.67


Nov 5, 2015

113.26
113.93
111.60
113.00
14,843,700
113.00

Historically, (DIS) does not move a lot post-earnings. I like the Neutral Calendar Spread here, which is a strategy that takes advantage of overpriced options and time-decay. The current Implied Volatility (IV) on the February Week 2 expiration is 86.77, while the Implied Volatility on the February 2016 expiration is 54.02. I am expecting the stock this quarter to move around $2.00 -$2.50/share This fits in well with the Neutral Calendar Spread strategy, as the break-even points are wide and the potential ROI is also high. I am giving this trade a 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 DIS FebWk2 91 Call

Buy 25 DIS Feb16 91 Call


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,000.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,000.00
Estimated Commission
$75.00


Greeks / NBBO

IV

DIS FebWk2 91 Call

86.77

DIS Feb16 91 Call

54.02

NBBO 0.30 – 0.50. Try to pay 0.40 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.43.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart. I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow before the opening bell.

DIS NCS 2916

Update 1: 9:25 am EST
: I am placing the closing price at 0.80. I will update any changes to this here, if needed.

Update 2: 1:48 pm EST: This trade is looking very good. STC still at 0.80.

Update 3: 2/1116: Position Closed.

Seats Still Available For Seminar in San Diego, CA (April 10 -12, 2016) ; Subscription Match Plan Info.

There are still seats available for the seminar in San Diego, CA from April 10-12, 2016. Once you sign-up for the seminar, a free lifetime subscription is included immediately ($1,499.00 value)

If you are interested in only a subscription, I am currently offering to match any plan that is three (3) months or longer.

If you have any questions about the seminar, the subscription service, or any questions about trading options, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com or info@kevinmobrien.com

Very Active Trading Day on Wednesday, 2/3/16

There have been a lot of very good trades today, all call positions. You can see the these on the Daily Trade Log at http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480.

The Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS) does remarkably well in rough market conditions, especially down markets, as there tends to be more trading opportunities than usual, especially call option trades.

One earnings trade today on (GPRO), reports after the bell.

Earnings Trade of the Week: eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Reports After the Markets Close On 1/27/16

eBay Inc. (EBAY) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 1/27/16

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:

Oct 22, 2015

26.50
27.66
26.26
27.58
44,605,900
27.58

Oct 21, 2015

24.56
24.70
24.18
24.21
16,881,400
24.21

The Neutral Calendar Spread strategy on this trade is beyond cheap to place. In fact, I haven’t seen such a low cost to place this strategy on any stock in quite some time. It simply has to be placed. Even if it were more expensive, I would still use it, as the break-even points are wide, and the possible ROI is very good. This is a 10/10. A must trade.

Here is how the trade is placed: (Note: I am using 100 contracts personally, you do not have to do the same)

Entered Trade

Sell -100 EBAY JanWk5 26.5 Call

Buy 100 EBAY Feb16 26.5 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$1,200.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$1,200.00
Estimated Commission
$300.00

NBBO
0.12 – 0.16. Try to pay 0.14 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 0.17. Try to get in this trade immediately, the price may not last long.

See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

EBAY NCS 12716

I will post the price to close this trade out tomorrow morning, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:25 am EST. I am placing the close price at 0.40

Very Busy Week for Earnings & Trading Opportunities, January 25 – 29, 2016

This week especially is loaded with earnings, so there should be plenty of trading opportunities. Among the stocks reporting earnings this week that I will to trade are the following:

AAPL, BABA, AMZN, PKG, PII, LMT, BA, DFS, FB, TXN, SWI, JNPR, JNJ, T, BBOX, COF, NVR, ABAX, PYPL, CAT, EA, HOG, LLL, MKC, MSFT, V, CVX, HON, MA, PX, STX,

Almost all of my earnings trades are neutral-based, meaning that I do not choose a specific direction. This allows a trader to profit regardless if the stock moves up or down post-earnings. Strategies that I like to use for earnings are the Neutral Calendar Spread, the Reverse Iron Condor, Strangle/Straddle, and occasionally the Long Put Butterfly Spread.

Next week should be very busy as well for earnings.

I am offering discounted subscription plans until January 31, 2016. If you have any questions, you can e-mail me at: kmob79@gmail.com

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) – Reports After The Markets Close 1/19/16

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.

Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting earnings:


Oct 15, 2015

103.77
104.88
99.10
101.09
48,484,300
101.09

Oct 14, 2015

111.50
111.63
108.05
110.23
33,231,500
110.23

NFLX has been a very volatile stock lately, it has been having up days on really down market days, and vice versa. I think this quarter, the stock is going to make a bigger than usual price move. However, I want to give myself some time on this trade so the Implied Volatility drop that happens post-earnings won’t effect the price of the options too much. I will be using a Strangle strategy with out-of-the-money options and March 2016 expiration dates. This provides a lot of time-value, and should the stock make a big move, up or down, this trade will do extremely well. Even if the stock makes only a $10.00 price move, I do not see the price of the options deteriorating much at all as they have almost 2 months until they expire. While this trade is not cheap to place (using 7 contracts only on each leg), there is not much risk overall. 9/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 130 Call

Buy 7 NFLX Mar16 85 Put


Requirements

Cost/Proceeds
$4,480.00
Option Requirement
$0.00
Total Requirements
$4,480.00
Estimated Commission
$21.00

NBBO
6.30 – 6.55. Try to pay 6.45 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay up to 6.55. I will post the STC orders tomorrow, right before the opening bell.

Update 1: 9:24 am EST
: After-hours yesterday, the stock made a big move, but is currently only up about $2.00/share, most likely due to the futures being down. I am placing the STC on the call side at $9.00, as the earnings report was very good, so expecting it to move back up. On the put side, place the STC at 7.00 for now. I will be updating this trade frequently here.

Update 2: STC on the puts at 9.00


Update 3: NFLX falling, place the STC on the puts at 11.00 now. Will continue updating as needed.

Update 4: 9:40 am EST. STC at 10.00 on the put side. STC at 7.00 on the call side.

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