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Daily Trade Log

I am posting all my daily trades at this link on the website, http://kevinmobrien.com/?page_id=480.

I am including the date, time the trade was placed, the strike price, expiration, and my sell-to-close order price above what I paid for each contract.

It’s a good way to go back and look to see if you missed something and what I am trading. If you have any questions, let me know. Thanks.

Updated Daily Options Trading Strategy Lists – 9/9/14

Tier 1 :

Apple (AAPL), CF Industries (CF), Baidu (BIDU), Google (GOOGL), Tesla Motors (TSLA), LinkedIn (LNKD), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), The Priceline Group (PCLN)

Tier 2:

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), International Business Machines (IBM), F5 Networks (FFIV), Twitter (TWTR), SanDisk (SNDK), Wynn Resorts (WYNN),  Facebook (FB), Boeing (BA), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Tier 3

Caterpillar (CAT),  FedEx Corp. (FDX), Visa (V), Citigroup (C), Zillow (Z), Yelp (YELP), Lululemon (LULU), Visa (V), Bank of America (BAC)

 

Free Trade of the Week: Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 8/6/14

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 8/6/14

Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (GMCR) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, August 6, 2014.

This is a stock that has consistently made large price moves quarter after quarter when reporting earnings, as this shows:

May 8, 2014 97.89 108.22 96.25 104.19 8,678,400 103.98
May 7, 2014 95.31 95.56 90.35 92.21 3,352,900 92.03

Now that the share price is even higher, we should see a large move once again. There is an 8% short float on this stock, which can be beneficial with volatile stocks such as GMCR, as short sellers will cover on any move up or short it more on any downturn. GMCR is almost always a must-play earnings trade, as not too many stocks move like it does in terms of percentage. For this reason, I will be placing a Strangle strategy. The trade is not inexpensive, by any means, as the IV increases dramatically leading up to earnings and the historical volatility also plays a role in the cost of the trade. Still, this is a solid 9/10. This trade has the potential to be a major homerun.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 8 GMCR Sep14 130 Call
Buy 8 GMCR Sep14 110 Put

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $5,920.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $5,920.00
Estimated Commission $24.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
GMCR Sep14
130 Call 3.65 3.75 45.16 261.29 15.39 119.73 -62.22
GMCR Sep14
110 Put 3.65 3.80 47.87 -221.98 13.50 111.27 -59.72
Net 39.31 28.89 231.00 -121.94

NBBO 7.30 7.55. Try to pay 7.45 or less for this trade, and a maximum of 7.75.

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: Whole Foods Market (WFM) – After the markets close 7/30/14

Whole Foods Market (WFM) – Earnings Trade – After the markets close 7/30/14

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) is scheduled to report earnings after thre markets close on Wednesday, July 30, 2014.Last quarter, the stock made a huge price move after reporting, as this shows:

May 7, 2014 39.28 39.48 37.31 38.93 49,122,000 38.81
May 6, 2014 48.33 48.54 47.87 47.95 9,435,700 47.80

The stock has really taken a beating lately, near a 52-week low. I do see this stock making a decent move today, somewhere around $3.00 – $4.00 tomorrow.

This trade is so cheap to place my eyes lit up when I put it through the trade calculator. Simply put, there is really little risk associated with this trade. It will hold value. 9/10. I should have placed this earlier, as it was going for a lot less than it is now.

This trade will once again be the Neutral Calendar Spread used two (2) times, just like the AMZN and PNRA trades.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade #1: WFM

Sell -50 WFM AugWk1 42 Call
Buy 50 WFM Aug14 42 Call

Sell -50 WFM AugWk1 34 Put
Buy 50 WFM Aug14 34 Put

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $1,300.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $1,300.00
Estimated Commission $300.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
WFM AugWk1
42 Call 0.47 0.51 148.56 -1,076.71 -347.41 -41.44 1,540.19
WFM Aug14
42 Call 0.61 0.69 58.92 1,230.67 333.71 126.30 -233.76
WFM AugWk1
34 Put 0.31 0.33 154.72 686.19 -250.37 -31.10 1,202.41
WFM Aug14
34 Put 0.38 0.44 59.73 -776.35 249.16 95.60 -177.56
Net 63.80 -14.91 149.36 2,331.28

NBBO 0.15 0.35. Try to pay 0.25 or less combined for both sides of the trade, and a maximum of 0.28. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

WFM NCS 2 73014

Free Trade of the Week: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) – Earnings Trade – Before the markets open 7/22/14

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is scheduled to report earnings before the markets open on Tuesday, July 22, 2014.

This stock has always been a consistent winner for earnings trades.For whatever reason, the option strike prices are inflated, always expecting a large price move. While last quarter that did somewhat happen, it is very unusual for this stock to do so. This is an excellent stock for the Neutral Calendar Spread. Here are their last 4 quarters of movement after reporting earnings:

Apr 22, 2014 72.51 73.50 71.35 71.87 5,835,700 71.59
Apr 21, 2014 65.97 67.69 65.97 67.54 1,458,700 67.28

Jan 30, 2014 66.31 66.69 62.21 63.19 2,822,000 62.68
Jan 29, 2014 64.10 65.05 63.74 64.04 2,142,200 63.52

Oct 22, 2013 66.07 66.49 63.76 64.71 2,475,000 63.99
Oct 21, 2013 66.00 66.04 65.08 65.57 1,921,200 64.84

Jul 25, 2013 57.47 59.52 55.57 55.74 3,183,600 54.93
Jul 24, 2013 56.11 56.40 55.40 55.86 1,506,700 55.05

I am giving this trade a 9/10. The only negative is that is could be a little less expensive, was looking for around 0.50.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Sell -25 HOG Aug14 67.5 Call
Buy 25 HOG Sep14 67.5 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $1,525.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $1,525.00
Estimated Commission $75.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
HOG Aug14
67.5 Call 1.91 2.02 30.39 -1,224.58 -186.82 -175.10 108.54
HOG Sep14
67.5 Call 2.46 2.68 26.21 1,224.04 140.43 270.13 -61.05
Net -0.54 -46.39 95.03 47.49

NBBO 0.44 0.77. Try to pay 0.61 or less for this trade. At a maximum, pay 0.64.

HOG NCS 72214

Updated Daily Options Trading Strategy Lists – 6/8/14

Tier 1 :

Apple (AAPL), CF Industries (CF), Baidu (BIDU), Google (GOOGL), Tesla Motors (TSLA), LinkedIn (LNKD), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Priceline Group (PCLN)

Tier 2:

Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR), International Business Machines (IBM), F5 Networks (FFIV) , Polaris Industries (PII), Twitter (TWTR), SanDisk (SNDK), Wynn Resorts (WYNN),  Facebook (FB), Goldman Sachs (GS),

Tier 3

Caterpillar (CAT),  FedEx Corp. (FDX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Monsanto (MON), PVH Corp (PVH), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Visa (V), Boeing (BA), Cummins Inc. (CMI)

Tier 4:

Yelp (YELP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Fossil (FOSL),  Zillow (Z), Citigroup (C), United Parcel Service (UPS), Precision Castparts (PCP), Ralph Lauren (RL), Salesforce.com (CRM)

Free Earnings Trade of the Week: SINA Corporation (SINA) – After the markets close 5/21/14

SINA Corporation (SINA) – Earnings Trade- After the markets close 5/21/14

SINA Corporation (SINA) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, May 21, 2014.

Since its last earnings release, the stock has really nose-dived. Here is how the stock moved last quarter:

Feb 25, 2014 72.50 72.79 68.14 68.98 9,447,700 68.98
Feb 24, 2014 77.75 78.49 74.60 76.08 6,368,400 76.08

The 52-week range is very wide, at $45.69 – $92.83. I am expecting this stock to either tank or move up a lot tomorrow, and I will be placing a Strangle with June expirations. 9/10. Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 10 SINA Jun14 50 Call
Buy 10 SINA Jun14 45 Put

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $3,100.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $3,100.00
Estimated Commission $30.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
SINA Jun14
50 Call 1.41 1.46 47.36 356.02 58.29 50.30 -40.12
SINA Jun14
45 Put 1.62 1.69 49.00 -345.45 55.73 49.75 -40.14
Net 10.57 114.02 100.05 -80.26

NBBO
3.03 3.15. Try to pay 3.10 or less for this trade, but you can go up to 3.30 if it gets late and your order isn’t filled.

Free Trade of the Week- Whole Foods (WFM) – Earnings Trade- After the markets close 5/6/14

Whole Foods (WFM) – Earnings Trade- After the markets close 5/6/14

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFM) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, May 6, 2014.

WFM is a stock that is fairly consistent making a $3.00+ price move over the years after reporting earnings. Last quarter the stock had the following price movement:

Feb 13, 2014 51.71 51.92 50.32 51.46 25,871,200 51.34
Feb 12, 2014 56.15 56.42 55.22 55.46 9,463,800 55.33

I believe thee right way to trade this stock for earnings is using a Reverse Iron Condor. A Strangle is too expensive, and generally, the stock doesn’t move that much to warrant that type of trade. A NCS allows little room for any movement, so that is definitely off the table. This is a solid trade, not providing a great ROI, but still very good. 8/10.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 10 WFM MayWk2 47 Put
Sell -10 WFM MayWk2 46 Put
Buy 10 WFM MayWk2 50 Call
Sell -10 WFM MayWk2 51 Call

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $610.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $610.00
Estimated Commission $60.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
WFM MayWk2
47 Put 0.99 1.04 90.12 -361.14 95.07 16.37 -245.39
WFM MayWk2
46 Put 0.66 0.70 90.56 268.88 -83.35 -14.43 217.35
WFM MayWk2
50 Call 0.81 0.83 86.73 338.96 96.48 16.01 -231.78
WFM MayWk2
51 Call 0.54 0.57 87.00 -253.01 -84.06 -13.99 203.12
Net -6.31 24.14 3.96 -56.70

NBBO 0.53 0.67. Try to pay 0.60 or less for this trade, and a maximum of 0.62. See the attachment for the profit/loss chart.

WFM RIC 5614

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) – Earnings Trade- After the Markets Close 5/1/14

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM – Earnings Trade- After the Markets Close 5/1/14

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) is scheduled to report earnings after the markets close on Thursday, May 1, 2014.This stock is one of the most volatile after reporting. Last quarter, the stock had the following price movement after reporting, and this wasn’t a one-time event:Feb 6, 2014 54.99 57.76 54.80 57.18 14,583,100 57.18
Feb 5, 2014 46.43 47.79 46.20 47.42 5,598,500 47.42

Looking at the strike prices, I feel they are very reasonably priced, especially if there is anywhere near the movement of the last few quarters.

What I really like about this trade is that while it is at a Strangle price, it is more like a Straddle, and that we can buy the June 2014 expirations at not much more cost than the May 2014’s. This is a must-trade, and should do very well.

Here is how the trade is placed:

Entered Trade

Buy 10 AKAM Jun14 55 Call
Buy 10 AKAM Jun14 52.5 Put

Requirements

Cost/Proceeds $5,360.00
Option Requirement $0.00
Total Requirements $5,360.00
Estimated Commission $30.00

Greeks / NBBO

Symbol Bid Ask IV Delta Gamma Vega Theta
AKAM Jun14
55 Call 2.72 2.81 39.87 484.00 50.01 79.68 -32.41
AKAM Jun14
52.5 Put 2.49 2.59 41.71 -393.72 46.14 76.90 -31.42
Net 90.28 96.15 156.58 -63.83

NBBO 5.21 5.40. Try to pay 30 or less, and a maximum of 5.50. Try to get in this trade early.

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